NVIDIA, Cisco, and Market Euphoria

Just listened to Bill Smead on Bloomberg talk about a bearish outlook on the current financial euphoria the market is experiencing with respect to artificial intelligence.

He compares the current wave of excitement over NVIDIA to the excitement over Cisco during the early days of the Internet. The legitimate development, which was the Internet, depended on the presence of the router, which skyrocketed the valuation of Cisco. On March 27, 2000, reported earnings pushed it to a $600 billion market cap. It has since grown to 15 times that size, but it never went back to that valuation. Smead thinks that the legitimate development in this case is artificial intelligence, and NVIDIA holds the same role in this situation as Cisco did.

With respect to when the NVIDIA bubble will burst, he uses Buffett's analogy of Cinderella at the ball. When the clock strikes midnight, everything will turn into pumpkins and mice, but there's no clocks around so she can't know when it will happen. One thing can be sure, though: the burst will be vicious.

What do you think of Smead's predictions? Do they hold weight or are they overly pessimistic?